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Getting past the election


2005 investing outlook


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About Bill Barnhart

Oil Prices, Earnings Send Stocks Lower
October 12, 2004


September Job Growth Weaker Than Forecast
October 9, 2004


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Election, fund decisions hover over slight gain, holiday pace
October 12, 2004

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October 11, 2004

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October 8, 2004

Market's late rallies point to an early impact from election
October 7, 2004

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chicagotribune.com >> Business

Market report
Bill Barnhart

Bill Barnhart
Market's late rallies point to an early impact from election


Published October 7, 2004

Are traders front-running the election? There are signs of stirring among Wall Street denizens.

Stocks remain locked in a narrow long-term trading range. But trading in late September and early October broke the depressing cycle of lower highs and lower lows that have characterized 2004.

Conventional wisdom among analysts still suggests that investors are hugging the sidelines until after the election.

Nonetheless, recent action, including share volume of nearly 2 billion in Nasdaq trading Wednesday, indicates that some investors are betting the post-election market will rally.

"I am bullish on the technical trend of this market," said Kenneth Tower, chief market strategist at CyberTrader, a unit of Charles Schwab.

Chicago-based money manager Carl Birkelbach said recent pessimism--over Iraq, higher oil prices, higher interest rates and an iffy economy--appears to be inviting buyers into the market.

"That kind of pessimism is necessary for a bottom to form," he said. "The election is coming up, and I'm starting to turn bullish a little early."

For one thing, several sessions have seen late rallies, a common pattern in a bull market, Tower said.

In particular, Wednesdays appear to inspire afternoon rallies, he said.

"It's tough to find a real rationale," he said. "But the main difference between the trading pattern in a rising market and the trading pattern in a declining market is in the last hour and a half of trading.

"You could capture all the gains of a bull market if you invested at 2 o'clock in the afternoon and sold at the close," Tower said.

Few investors make such moves, of course, but the pattern tends to validate an overall bullish trend, Tower said.

Money managers typically put cash to work as the year draws to a close, anticipating a seasonal rally in January. Stocks hit their 2004 highs in January and February.

Wednesday's action: Stocks rallied sharply late in the session to close with a modest gain, despite a fresh record high in crude oil prices.

Analysts cited optimism about prospects for a year-end rally and speculation that Friday's report on job growth in September will be better than the consensus forecast of 150,000 new jobs.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 62.24 points, to 10,239.92. 3M, Boeing and DuPont were three of the biggest gainers among the 30 Dow industrials. Merck was the biggest loser.

Oil giant Exxon Mobil rose 71 cents, to $50.03. Crude oil for November delivery rose 93 cents a barrel, to $52.02.

Energy and basic materials stocks have led recent market advances, but technology stocks have rallied in the last two weeks.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 7.57, to 1142.05. The Nasdaq composite index added 15.53, to 1971.03. The Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks gained 5.32, to 592.66.

Lucent Technologies was the most active stock on the New York Stock Exchange, adding 27 cents, or 8.6 percent, to $3.39.

NYSE trading volume reached 1.36 billion shares. Winners topped losers by more than a 2-1 ratio among NYSE-listed issues.

Nasdaq trading volume totaled 1.89 billion shares, the biggest daily volume since July 21. Winners topped losers by more than a 3-2 ratio among Nasdaq stocks.

Treasury securities closed lower, reflecting a lackluster auction of 5-year Treasury notes. The auction brought a yield of 3.49 percent, up from 3.44 percent at the previous 5-year auction in September.

Treasuries were hit by comments by William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Poole suggested the Fed's recent campaign to raise interest rates may not stop until the target short-term interest rate reaches 5 percent or more. That's higher than traders had been assuming. The current rate is 1.75 percent.

The dollar advanced against major foreign currencies.

Gold hit a six-month high, $422.20 an ounce, early Wednesday. Gold for December delivery closed at $420, up 20 cents, in New York futures trading.


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Copyright © 2004, Chicago Tribune



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