Market
report
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Bill Barnhart
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Market's late rallies
point to an early impact from election
Published October 7,
2004
Are traders front-running the election? There are signs
of stirring among Wall Street denizens.
Stocks remain locked
in a narrow long-term trading range. But trading in late September
and early October broke the depressing cycle of lower highs and
lower lows that have characterized 2004.
Conventional wisdom
among analysts still suggests that investors are hugging the
sidelines until after the election.
Nonetheless, recent
action, including share volume of nearly 2 billion in Nasdaq trading
Wednesday, indicates that some investors are betting the
post-election market will rally.
"I am bullish on the
technical trend of this market," said Kenneth Tower, chief market
strategist at CyberTrader, a unit of Charles
Schwab.
Chicago-based money manager Carl Birkelbach said
recent pessimism--over Iraq, higher oil prices, higher interest
rates and an iffy economy--appears to be inviting buyers into the
market.
"That kind of pessimism is necessary for a bottom to
form," he said. "The election is coming up, and I'm starting to turn
bullish a little early."
For one thing, several sessions have
seen late rallies, a common pattern in a bull market, Tower
said.
In particular, Wednesdays appear to inspire afternoon
rallies, he said.
"It's tough to find a real rationale," he
said. "But the main difference between the trading pattern in a
rising market and the trading pattern in a declining market is in
the last hour and a half of trading.
"You could capture all
the gains of a bull market if you invested at 2 o'clock in the
afternoon and sold at the close," Tower said.
Few investors
make such moves, of course, but the pattern tends to validate an
overall bullish trend, Tower said.
Money managers typically
put cash to work as the year draws to a close, anticipating a
seasonal rally in January. Stocks hit their 2004 highs in January
and February.
Wednesday's action: Stocks rallied sharply late
in the session to close with a modest gain, despite a fresh record
high in crude oil prices.
Analysts cited optimism about
prospects for a year-end rally and speculation that Friday's report
on job growth in September will be better than the consensus
forecast of 150,000 new jobs.
The Dow Jones industrial
average gained 62.24 points, to 10,239.92. 3M, Boeing and DuPont
were three of the biggest gainers among the 30 Dow industrials.
Merck was the biggest loser.
Oil giant Exxon Mobil rose 71
cents, to $50.03. Crude oil for November delivery rose 93 cents a
barrel, to $52.02.
Energy and basic materials stocks have led
recent market advances, but technology stocks have rallied in the
last two weeks.
The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index
rose 7.57, to 1142.05. The Nasdaq composite index added 15.53, to
1971.03. The Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks gained 5.32,
to 592.66.
Lucent Technologies was the most active stock on
the New York Stock Exchange, adding 27 cents, or 8.6 percent, to
$3.39.
NYSE trading volume reached 1.36 billion shares.
Winners topped losers by more than a 2-1 ratio among NYSE-listed
issues.
Nasdaq trading volume totaled 1.89 billion shares,
the biggest daily volume since July 21. Winners topped losers by
more than a 3-2 ratio among Nasdaq stocks.
Treasury
securities closed lower, reflecting a lackluster auction of 5-year
Treasury notes. The auction brought a yield of 3.49 percent, up from
3.44 percent at the previous 5-year auction in
September.
Treasuries were hit by comments by William Poole,
president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Poole
suggested the Fed's recent campaign to raise interest rates may not
stop until the target short-term interest rate reaches 5 percent or
more. That's higher than traders had been assuming. The current rate
is 1.75 percent.
The dollar advanced against major foreign
currencies.
Gold hit a six-month high, $422.20 an ounce,
early Wednesday. Gold for December delivery closed at $420, up 20
cents, in New York futures trading.
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