Wednesday, December 29



Market report
Bill Barnhart
Bill Barnhart
Confident stock buyers reawaken year-end rally



Published December 29, 2004

The year-end stock market rally rekindled Tuesday after stumbling on Monday.

Buyers returned after a monthly survey of consumer confidence reached a five-month high.

Trading volume was thin, as expected in the holiday week. But the market was broadly positive.

"We can say this officially--the bear market has ended," said Chicago-based investment manager Carl Birkelbach.

"There is increased investor confidence. A lot of people are still down from 1999 and 2000, but there are concerns about staying on the sidelines."

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 78.41 points, to 10,854.54, a new 3 1/2-year high.

Peoria-based Caterpillar led the gain, as traders contemplated the reconstruction of many regions around the Indian Ocean that fell victim to the tsunami. Shares climbed $2.37, to $98.47.

Only one of the 30 Dow industrials lost ground. Semiconductor giant Intel slipped 9 cents, to $23.28.

But tech stocks generally advanced, led by online merchants Amazon.com and eBay.

Amazon.com closed up $2.38, or 5.6 percent, to $44.63. eBay added $3.30, or 2.9 percent, to $116.16.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index added 8.62, to 1213.54; the Nasdaq composite index rose 22.97, or 1.1 percent, to 2177.19; the Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks added 10.23, or 1.6 percent, to 654.57.

Analysts found much to like in the latest consumer confidence reading, released by the Conference Board, a business research group.

The data belied recent reports of tepid job growth, a factor believed to be critical in molding consumer sentiment.

Moreover, the December survey suggested that the so-so holiday shopping season was not the end of consumers' spending plans.

"The percentage of consumers planning to buy cars, homes and major appliances over the next several months improved after experiencing sizable declines in the previous month," said Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.

Moody's Investors Service noted that the latest data suggest consumers are not troubled by high oil prices or the weak dollar, two major headlines in the business press.

Moreover, "consumers' perception of job opportunities improved significantly in December," Moody's said.

"Both the economic fundamentals and consumer attitudes suggest consumer spending will remain a key pillar for continued economic expansion," said Nomura Securities International.

New York Stock Exchange trading volume reached 968.2 million shares. Winners outnumbered losers by nearly a 3-1 margin.

Nasdaq volume totaled 1.52 billion shares, as winners topped losers by a 7-3 edge.

Treasury securities closed little-changed, despite the strong consumer confidence report.

The dollar edged higher against major currencies, ending a four-day decline.

Oil for February delivery rose 45 cents a barrel, to $41.77.

Year-end noodling: Like certain animals during a full moon, investors are tempted to unusual behavior around the turn of each year.

Apparently investors with little else to do between Christmas a New Year's hunt for beaten-down stocks that will give them a quick gain in early January.

It's a trick that has worked well enough to be dubbed "Wall Street's only free lunch" by the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Stocks that reach their 52-week lows on the fourth-to-last trading day of the year tend to get a bounce early in January.

Unfortunately, a strong year-end rally reduces the number of common stocks reaching 52-week lows in the final trading days of the year. For example, a year ago the fourth-to-last trading day on the New York Stock Exchange recorded no common stocks among the day's 52-week lows.

As of Tuesday, the fourth-to-last trading day this year, the pickings were a little better.

Among stocks trading for at least $5 per share, 52-week lows were hit by Century Bancorp of Bedford, Mass.; MDS Inc., a medical equipment and service company; Cambridge Display, a British developer of flat-screen technology; and Mothers Work, a maker of maternity clothes.

According to the theory, you don't want to hold these stocks long after they show any sign of a gain in the new year, assuming they advance enough to cover your trading costs and taxes.

Copyright © 2004, Chicago Tribune