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Market
report
 Bill
Barnhart Confident stock buyers
reawaken year-end rally
Published December 29,
2004
The year-end stock market rally rekindled Tuesday after
stumbling on Monday.
Buyers returned after a monthly survey
of consumer confidence reached a five-month high.
Trading
volume was thin, as expected in the holiday week. But the market was
broadly positive.
"We can say this officially--the bear
market has ended," said Chicago-based investment manager Carl
Birkelbach.
"There is increased investor confidence. A lot of
people are still down from 1999 and 2000, but there are concerns
about staying on the sidelines."
The Dow Jones industrial
average rose 78.41 points, to 10,854.54, a new 3 1/2-year
high.
Peoria-based Caterpillar led the gain, as traders
contemplated the reconstruction of many regions around the Indian
Ocean that fell victim to the tsunami. Shares climbed $2.37, to
$98.47.
Only one of the 30 Dow industrials lost ground.
Semiconductor giant Intel slipped 9 cents, to $23.28.
But
tech stocks generally advanced, led by online merchants Amazon.com
and eBay.
Amazon.com closed up $2.38, or 5.6 percent, to
$44.63. eBay added $3.30, or 2.9 percent, to $116.16.
The
Standard & Poor's 500 index added 8.62, to 1213.54; the Nasdaq
composite index rose 22.97, or 1.1 percent, to 2177.19; the Russell
2000 index of small-company stocks added 10.23, or 1.6 percent, to
654.57.
Analysts found much to like in the latest consumer
confidence reading, released by the Conference Board, a business
research group.
The data belied recent reports of tepid job
growth, a factor believed to be critical in molding consumer
sentiment.
Moreover, the December survey suggested that the
so-so holiday shopping season was not the end of consumers' spending
plans.
"The percentage of consumers planning to buy cars,
homes and major appliances over the next several months improved
after experiencing sizable declines in the previous month," said
Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.
Moody's Investors
Service noted that the latest data suggest consumers are not
troubled by high oil prices or the weak dollar, two major headlines
in the business press.
Moreover, "consumers' perception of
job opportunities improved significantly in December," Moody's
said.
"Both the economic fundamentals and consumer attitudes
suggest consumer spending will remain a key pillar for continued
economic expansion," said Nomura Securities
International.
New York Stock Exchange trading volume reached
968.2 million shares. Winners outnumbered losers by nearly a 3-1
margin.
Nasdaq volume totaled 1.52 billion shares, as winners
topped losers by a 7-3 edge.
Treasury securities closed
little-changed, despite the strong consumer confidence
report.
The dollar edged higher against major currencies,
ending a four-day decline.
Oil for February delivery rose 45
cents a barrel, to $41.77.
Year-end noodling: Like certain
animals during a full moon, investors are tempted to unusual
behavior around the turn of each year.
Apparently investors
with little else to do between Christmas a New Year's hunt for
beaten-down stocks that will give them a quick gain in early
January.
It's a trick that has worked well enough to be
dubbed "Wall Street's only free lunch" by the Stock Trader's
Almanac.
Stocks that reach their 52-week lows on the
fourth-to-last trading day of the year tend to get a bounce early in
January.
Unfortunately, a strong year-end rally reduces the
number of common stocks reaching 52-week lows in the final trading
days of the year. For example, a year ago the fourth-to-last trading
day on the New York Stock Exchange recorded no common stocks among
the day's 52-week lows.
As of Tuesday, the fourth-to-last
trading day this year, the pickings were a little
better.
Among stocks trading for at least $5 per share,
52-week lows were hit by Century Bancorp of Bedford, Mass.; MDS
Inc., a medical equipment and service company; Cambridge Display, a
British developer of flat-screen technology; and Mothers Work, a
maker of maternity clothes.
According to the theory, you
don't want to hold these stocks long after they show any sign of a
gain in the new year, assuming they advance enough to cover your
trading costs and taxes.
Copyright © 2004, Chicago Tribune
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