Market report
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Bill Barnhart
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Small-company stocks
join bigger siblings in downhill march
Published March 25,
2004
The stock market's malaise added a
new victim Wednesday.
During the trading session, the Russell
2000 index of small-company stocks dipped into negative territory
for the year.
Small-cap
stocks were big winners last year. The Russell 2000, which is the
benchmark for many active equity fund managers, gained 47 percent in
2003.
By comparison, the Dow Jones industrial average of 30
giant companies climbed 28 percent last year.
Both were
respectable gains, bouncing off tough times in the previous three
years.
But the story of 2003 was the strength of
small-company stocks as forerunners of an economic
recovery.
Now investors are concerned that the small-cap
rally ran far ahead of good times that have yet to materialize in
many parts of the economy.
As one indicator of the current
state of caution, the more speculative growth stocks in the Russell
2000 have trailed the more conservative small-cap value stocks so
far this year--the opposite of last year's
results.
Wednesday's action: Stocks closed mixed, as
technology stocks ended a four-day losing streak but broader indexes
continued to slump.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell
15.41, to 10,048.23. Losses by Merck, Alcoa and Exxon Mobil offset
gains by Caterpillar, DuPont and International Business
Machines.
The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped
2.62, to 1091.33. The Nasdaq composite index added 7.68, to 1909.48.
The Russell 2000 fell 3.29, to 557.63, but during the session it
reached a new low for the year, 556.13.
"So far, this is a standard correction," said Chicago money
manager Carl Birkelbach. "The only thing that is still holding
is the Dow Jones above 10,000."
In recent days, world financial markets have
responded to terrorism fears. On Wednesday, officials in France
found a bomb on the tracks of a state-run railway.
But a
survey of business economists found that poor job growth and federal
deficits were the major concerns, ahead of terrorism.
"The
major economic risk has now moved to job growth and the deficit,
rather than terrorism," said Duncan Meldrum, president of the
National Association for Business Economics, in a statement released
with the survey.
New York Stock Exchange trading volume was
1.49 billion shares. Losers outnumbered winners by nearly a 2-1
ratio among NYSE-listed issues.
Nasdaq volume totaled 1.77
billion shares, as losers held a narrow lead over
winners.
The government's monthly auction of 2-year notes
brought a yield of 1.52 percent.
Gold for April delivery lost
$2.60 an ounce, to $417.40, in New York futures trading.
Oil
prices eased, reflecting a report of greater oil inventories in the
U.S. Crude oil for May delivery dropped 44 cents a barrel, to
$37.01.
Fed speak: Treasury securities closed lower, after
Jack Guynn, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, warned
that interest rates eventually will follow economic growth
higher.
Traders will contend Thursday with public remarks by
several other Federal Reserve officials. In recent days, the
comments have been mixed.
On Monday, Alfred Broaddus,
president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, told Reuters that
the economy still has not expanded sufficiently to force the Fed to
worry about raising interest rates.
"I think the expansion is
going to continue. It will just take longer for it to gain
momentum," he said.
Guynn was more hawkish on interest rates
in remarks Wednesday: "I don't want businesses to build their plans
on expectations of a continuation of accommodative monetary policy
without regard to prospective economic conditions."
By way of
example, Guynn cited his son, Mike, a real estate developer who has
prospered under 45-year-low interest rates. "I think, at least I
hope, Mike understands that as rates move back to more typical
levels at some point, some of his business may be vulnerable--that
part induced by temporary low rates alone."
Presidents of the
Federal Reserve banks in New York and St. Louis are scheduled to
give speeches Thursday.
Copyright © 2004, Chicago Tribune