In the next few weeks, the financial press will go nuts over an obvious story: the one-year anniversary of the latest stock market rally.

The daily close of the Standard & Poor's 500 index, considered the benchmark of the U.S. equity market, bottomed out on March 11, 2003, closing at 800.73.

At the end of trading Wednesday, the index stood at 1151.82. That represents a gain of 44 percent--not bad for a stock market said by some to be permanently damaged by the Nasdaq bust of 2000-2002.

Of course, the S&P 500, like all major stock market indexes, remains below its all-time high. The S&P 500 closed at 1527.46 on March 24, 2000. That means stocks are off 25 percent from their peak.

But who wants to celebrate four years of stocks being under water?

Instead, investors likely will ask, can the rally keep going?

No one knows. But the market's tentative action in the last few weeks suggests investors are asking the question.

The political overlay looks like this: The market-friendly tax and spending moves by the Bush administration are over, even if President Bush wins re-election in November.

If the Democrats win the White House, Wall Street will take many anxious months to adjust to the surprise.

In terms of business and market issues, the outlook is similarly guarded.

"The operating performance of companies is increasing. The economy is getting better. But stock prices are way outrunning operating performance," said Brian Hamilton, chief executive of Sageworks, a service that translates numerical financial data about companies into text.

Based on traditional accounting measurements, such as net profit, profit margin and asset-to-liability ratio, it's clear that investors again are becoming exuberant about buying stocks, he said.

From a technical analyst's viewpoint, the S&P 500 index hovers between 1122, a low reached in January, and 1174, an intraday high reached in March 2002, said Chicago-based money manager Carl Birkelbach.

Breaking above 1174 would mark a new leg of the rally.

"This is a particularly cautious time," Birkelbach said.

Tech stocks, notably software stocks, have been a factor in the market's hesitation as the rally anniversary nears. Microsoft peaked at $28.80 on Jan. 26 and closed Wednesday at $26.77.

Wednesday's action: Stock prices fell in moderate trading, as Wall Street provided no new megamerger announcement to prompt buying excitement.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 42.89, to 10,671.99. IBM, Honeywell and 3M led the decliners among the 30 Dow industrials. United Technologies was the biggest gainer, closing up $1.83, to $97.36.

SBC Communications, a component of the Dow and part-owner of Cingular Wireless, lost 42 cents, to $24.45. On Tuesday, Cingular won a bidding contest to acquire AT&T Wireless for $41 billion.

BellSouth, the other owner of Cingular, fell 70 cents, to $28.36.

AT&T Wireless slipped 6 cents, to $13.72. The other two major wireless communication stocks--Nextel Communications and Sprint PCS--also lost ground. Both stocks rallied this month, as the bidding war heated up for AT&T Wireless.

The S&P 500 index lost 5.17, to 1151.82. The Nasdaq composite index slid 3.88, to 2076.47. The Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks slipped 3.00, to 591.48.

Among stocks in the news, Eastman Kodak, a component of the Dow industrials, became the latest major company to agree to record employee stock option awards as a business expense. Kodak shares slipped 24 cents, to $28.83.

Shares of Applied Materials, which makes fabrication equipment for the semiconductor industry, advanced in late trading. The company posted better-than-expected quarterly results and an upbeat outlook.

New York Stock Exchange trading volume reached 1.37 billion shares. Losers outnumbered winners by a 5-3 ratio.

Nasdaq trading volume totaled 1.73 billion shares, as losers topped winners by about a 3-2 ratio.

The dollar rallied late in the day, after the greenback hit a fresh record low against the euro early Wednesday. The dollar also gained against the yen.

Treasury securities edged lower, sending interest rates higher.