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GreenMoneyJournal.com
Seeking
Integrity and Performance By Carl M.
Birkelbach
Most would agree it is important to lead one's life with
integrity. It is not only important that you have integrity in your
personal life, but also in how you earn your money, how you spend it
and how you invest it.
However, what discourages many from
holding themselves to a higher standard in their investments is the
lack-luster performance of mutual funds that are designated as
"socially responsible investing" (SRI). It is especially
discouraging when one sees such headlines as "Sin stocks pay off for
investors," which appeared in the International Herald Tribune on
June 5, 2005. The so-called "Vice Fund" claims an average annual
return of 18.8 percent since inception in September 2002.
At
Birkelbach Management Corp. we believe investors who choose to put
their money where their values are do not necessarily have to
sacrifice performance, if a proper methodology is utilized.
We have found that maintaining a socially responsible
portfolio that takes into account factors such as corporate
sustainability and shareholder accountability can be a foundation to
mitigate investment risk. We believe that corporate sustainability
is a catalyst for enlightened and disciplined management and is a
crucial factor in the success of a company and of its stock
performance.
The majority of companies have product,
services and methods of operation that generate positive
opportunities for economic growth and enhance the human condition.
Such companies avoid vulnerability to government intervention, legal
entanglements and the wrath of public opinion and, if properly
selected, can show good returns.
Our Five-Point
Strategy/The Process
Our strategy for superior
performance uses our own proprietary methodology, while considering
financial as well as socially responsible and corporate
sustainability issues. We believe one can "invest in your values,"
and by listening to your "heart and your brain," one can
substantially outperform the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Our
Five-Point Investment Strategy follows a screening process as
described below.
1. Avoidance Screening
We start with the stocks of the S&P 500 and perform an
avoidance screening by eliminating companies whose main products
involve the manufacture of alcohol and tobacco, or are involved with
gambling or weapons production. All of these groups in the past have
outperformed the S&P 500. However, we believe "the times they
are a changing." The collapse of Enron's stock in late 2004, and
the legal activities of government officials such as Elliott
Spitzer, will in our opinion lead to further government
intervention, legal complication and public outcry that could damage
the financial stability of these companies.
Although the
excessive use of tobacco and alcohol causes dramatic health problems
to those with addictive tendencies, these companies continue their
aggressive advertising campaigns and deal with legal costs through
price increases. It is our belief that legal bills will rise to
higher levels in the future and that it will be more difficult to
pass legal costs on to the public through product price increases.
Second, we believe there will be substantial curtailment in the
misuse of these products through educational enlightenment.
Gambling is equally devastating to addictive personalities,
comprising a segment of the population that can least afford to
lose. Although many state governments balance their budget through
taxation of gambling establishments and lotto activities, it is just
a matter of time before the kind of warning labels that appear on
cigarette packages will appear on slot machines. The labels could
say, "For every $100 deposited, the average gambler only gets $60
back." Weapons manufacturing is a more difficult area to
address. After all, none of us want our country to be defenseless.
However, the effects of war are devastating to both sides. Aside
from the controversial side of weapons production, there is the
issue of the way contracts are distributed and priced. Over the
years, there have been many news stories about the corruption of the
way defense contracts are awarded and the controversy over such
items as the "one thousand dollar wrench."
2.
Quantitative Methodology/Buy and Sell Candidates Next,
we have our own proprietary methodology. The first methodology
determines a list of stocks that exhibit returns highly correlated
with the S&P 500 and should help the portfolio attain excellent
returns during "up" markets. The second methodology determines a
list of stocks which exhibit low correlation returns with respect to
the S&P 500 and should outperform the market during "down"
markets. Our proprietary software, developed in-house, allows us
to instantly either update our portfolio or quantify past
performance with the press of a button. This methodology, in
addition to giving us "buy candidates," allows us to monitor our
portfolio for "sell candidates."
3. Technical
Methodology/Buy and Sell Strategies We use technical
methodology to determine what phase of a "bell curve" cycle a stock
is in, and what short-term, intermediate and long-term trend the
stock exhibits. A summary of these methods is available on our
brokerage services Website http://www.my-broker.com/ under Stock Market
Forecasting through Charting. We also have our own proprietary
overbought/oversold indicator, which can be viewed at our Website
under The Strategy Index category. Currently, we favor issues
that have ended their old Bear Market trend, and have left their
Accumulation Phase, in which they came down from their highs and,
after making new lows, resisted going lower. Now they have entered
the upward Progression Phase of a new Bull Market. We believe "the
trend is your friend" for both buying and for selling strategies.
4. Qualitative Stock Analysis/Buy and Sell
Candidates Next, we use financial criteria, which
continue to be important in determining buy and sell candidates. One
can still be blind sided by unforeseen corporate news. However, the
likelihood of big changes lessens, if one considers "value."
Companies with consistent earnings and dividend announcement are
preferred, but reasonable multiples, or stock price/earnings ratios,
for growth possibilities should also be considered. This is also
the time to look at companies on a corporate sustainability basis.
This can be a difficult process, as companies such as Wal-Mart may
be dropped because of their controversial labor practices.
5. Macro Economic Analysis/Buy and Sell
Strategies Lastly, we determine through economic
criteria and technical indicators the kind of investment strategy we
should employ. During the 1990s Bull Market, almost everything went
up with only minor setbacks. Likewise, in the early 2000s Bear
Market, almost everything went down, with only minor up ticks.
We believe the current market is unlike either the old Bull or
Bear Market. Selection and "buy and sell" strategies have become
more important in achieving double-digit returns. We believe the old
Bear Market ended in October 2002. Our technical methods "let the
market tell us what to do," instead of "us telling the market what
to do." Presently, the market is at a critical stage and is at a
trend line which stretches across time from January 2002 to March
2005, forming a Giant Head and Shoulders Bottoming Formation (See
our Website http://www.my-broker.com/ under Investment
Strategy Letters #539, #540 and #541). This trend line, which we
call a "neckline," has a stranglehold on the market. However, if
this stranglehold is broken, we believe the upside potential of the
markets are above 14,300 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (up 32
percent from its early July 2005 level), above 1512 for the S&P
500 (up 31 percent) and above 2191 for the NASDAQ Composite Index
(up 45 percent).
There is plenty to worry about, but
remember, "bull markets climb a wall of worry" and there is plenty
of cash on the sidelines that is invested at unattractive rates.
Model Portfolio Performance
We have
two strategies for our model portfolios. Our model Growth Portfolio
strategy incorporates the "Five-Point Strategy" listed above with a
fully invested position and only quarterly changes. Our model
Aggressive Growth Portfolio incorporates the same "Five-Point
Strategy" with quarterly changes and in addition incorporates a
strategy that allows the model portfolio to go up to 30 percent
cash.
Cumulative Model Growth Portfolio Returns (June 30,
2005*) vs. S&P 500
1 Year - Growth Portfolio up 15.32%
vs. S&P 500 up 6.22% 3 Year - Growth Portfolio up 48.45% vs.
S&P 500 up 21.39% - (Annualized 14.1% vs. +6.7%) 5 Year
- Growth Portfolio up 37.50% vs. S&P 500 down 16.10% -
(Annualized +6.6% vs. -3.5%)
Cumulative Model Aggressive
Growth Portfolio (June 30, 2005*) vs. S&P 500
1 Year -
Aggressive Growth Portfolio up 34.47% vs. S&P 500 up 6.22% 3
Year - Aggressive Growth Portfolio up 68.48% vs. S&P 500 up
21.39% - (Annualized 18.9% vs. +6.7%) 5 Year - Aggressive
Growth Portfolio up 44.44% vs. S&P 500 down 16.10% -
(Annualized +7.6% vs. -3.5%)
We Believe
We believe any strategy that incorporates social
responsibility and corporate sustainability makes the world a better
place. Most companies reap rewards for investors by enhancing the
human condition and inspiring the values of initiative, equal
opportunity and economic growth. For the other companies, government
regulation is only part of the response to the crises of scandalous
behavior of top corporate management All of us bear the
responsibility to influence the corporate culture by holding
ourselves to a higher standard and putting our investment dollars in
corporations that reflect our values. The good news is that today,
more than ever before, investors looking for excellent financial
performance can seek to obtain it while still addressing their
socially responsible values.
*Be mindful that the
performance of these two portfolios is hypothetical and does not
represent an actual client account (as individual client objectives
and instructions are customized). Past performance is no guarantee
or indication of future results.
Article by Carl M.
Birkelbach is founder, chairman and chief executive officer of
Birkelbach Management Corp. (BMC), http://www.investmentvalues.biz/ a Chicago-based
money manager since 1974, and a registered investment advisor, and
of Birkelbach Investment Securities, Inc., http://www.my-broker.com/ a full-service
NASD-registered broker dealer with safekeeping and execution
services provided through its correspondent relationship with
Pershing LLC, the world's leader in brokerage services. Featured
among BMC's full range of investment alternatives and strategies is
an innovative strategy for managing separate investment accounts
seeking to obtain performance returns superior to those of the
Standard & Poor's 500 Index while giving investors an
opportunity to consider corporate sustainability issues.
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