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What Recovery?
Many investors now feel that the financial crisis, which peaked with the take over of Bear Stearns, has been fully discounted. We do not agree. The big drama may be over. However, under this new regulatory environment, we believe increased transparency will surface continued problems in the financial sector. In addition, it appears that the increased price of commodities and the continued decrease prices of housing will cause reduced consumer spending. The first sign of this can be seen as Tropicana, the Las Vegas Casino Company has declared Chapter 11. So, while one shoe of the financial crisis has fallen, the second shoe yet to fall may be the consumer, who is no longer able to finance spending with increased debt. Our Strategy Index has given a Sell Signal.
The Intermediate and Long Term Trend of the markets now appears
to be Sideways. We believe the upside of this Sideways Trend is as follows:
Upside Resistance Dow 14,198; NASDAQ 2,834; S&P 500 1,514 with
Downside Support Dow 10,900; NASDAQ 1,940 and S&P 500 1,1,66. Selection
and Market timing have become increasingly important
Dow 13,020            NASDAQ 2,483        S&P 500 1,420
| Current Trends |
DJIA |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
| Short Term |
Up |
Up |
Up |
| Int. Term |
Sideways |
Sideways |
Sideways |
| Long Term |
Sideways |
Sideways |
Sideways |
| Forecasted Trends |
DJIA |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
| Short Term |
? |
? |
? |
| Int. Term |
Sideways |
Sideways |
Sideways |
| Long Term |
Sideways |
Sideways |
Sideways |
| Breakout Points |
DJIA |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
| Short Term Up (Resistance) |
13,112 |
2,494 |
1,421 |
| Short Term Down (Support)
|
11,700 |
2,210 |
1,276 |
| Int. Term Up (Resistance) |
13,800/14,198 |
2,781/2,834 |
1,514/1,576 |
| Int. Term Down (Support)
|
10,900 |
1,940 |
1,166 |
| Long Term Up (Resistance) |
14,309 |
2,892/4,250 |
1,576 |
| Long Term Down (Support) |
7,416/7,197 |
1,253/1,108 |
788/768 |
May 07 2008
-- Carl Birkelbach
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable
but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Birkelbach Investment
Securities, Inc., its affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and
employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in the securities
discussed in this report, we may act as principal for our own account or as
agent for both the buyer and the seller.
Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Also, while the above suggested
prices are as listed on our reports and the sell dates and prices are as issued
by our research department, our brokers operate independently and as each individual
client has a unique risk tolerance level, the above list should not be deemed
as a representation of our clients purchases and sales. Some of our suggestions
are volatile and speculative. Therefore, these stocks are only for those investors
willing to assume risk. In addition, there may not be enough information available
in these reports to make an informed decision. Upon request, we will supply
additional information. Purchases should not be made until enough information
is obtained and risks understood.
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