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Updated April 30, 2002
The good news is that based on our current Short Term and Intermediate Term Strategy Index, the NASDAQ, QQQ and stocks like QCOM and IBM are either in or very close to oversold territory. The bad news is that these issues have broken below support areas. The S&P 500 is right at support. The Dow is 400 points above support. All are in or close to being oversold, based on our Strategy Index. The question is, do we believe the interpretation of the Dow, S&P or the NASDAQ? All the markets have been in a major Bear Market for the last couple of years. This could be an excellent opportunity for the series of lower lows and disappointments to end. Hopefully, most of the negative news is out and the worst of the "Perfect Storm" (We refer to it in our Late April Investment Strategy Letter) is over. The economy should now improve and so should the market. This is another critical point. Should the market rise from here, this could be the first step in ending the current Bear Market pattern. We believe a bottom is close, but it cannot yet be pinpointed. Stay tuned.
|
Technical Trends |
DJIA |
NASDAQ |
S &P 500 |
|
Short Term |
Down |
Down |
Down |
|
Int. Term |
Bottoming |
Bottoming |
Bottoming |
|
Long Term |
Down |
Down |
Down |
|
Forecasted Trends |
DJIA |
NASDAQ |
S &P 500 |
|
Short Term |
Up |
Up |
Up |
|
Int. Term |
Bottoming |
Bottoming |
Bottoming |
|
Long Term |
Bottoming |
Bottoming |
Bottoming |
|
Breakout Points |
DJIA |
NASDAQ |
S &P 500 |
|
Short Term Up |
10,400 |
1,946 |
1,176 |
|
Short Term Down |
10,000 |
? |
1,074 |
|
Int. Term Up |
10,679 |
2,328 |
1,315 |
|
Int. Term Down |
9.529 |
? |
1,053 |
|
Long Term Up |
11,700 |
4400 |
1550 |
|
Long Term Down |
8062 |
1387 |
944 |
-- Carl Birkelbach
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST
This report has been prepared from original sources and data we believe reliable
but make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Birkelbach Investment
Securities, Inc., its affiliates and subsidiaries and/or their officers and
employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in the securities
discussed in this report, we may act as principal for our own account or as
agent for both the buyer and the seller.
Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Also, while the above suggested
prices are as listed on our reports and the sell dates and prices are as issued
by our research department, our brokers operate independently and as each individual
client has a unique risk tolerance level, the above list should not be deemed
as a representation of our clients purchases and sales. Some of our suggestions
are volatile and speculative. Therefore, these stocks are only for those investors
willing to assume risk. In addition, there may not be enough information available
in these reports to make an informed decision. Upon request, we will supply
additional information. Purchases should not be made until enough information
is obtained and risks understood.
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